📡 Research Board — Created by GWY

Daily & weekly automated equity research — semis / AI / tech

SG --:--:-- NY (ET) --:--:-- 📅 -- 👥 — lifetime · — today Dark Mode

💼 Model Portfolio - Auto Run by Agents — Sep 24, 2026

💼 MODEL PORTFOLIO — Auto Run by Agents — 2026-09-24

Book d+0.23% c+12.23% vs SMH d-0.15% c+2.32% | α(d)+0.37% α(c)+9.91% · SOXX d+0.06% c+1.90% | α(d)+0.16% α(c)+10.33%

Market: Thu Sep 24 processed. Rotation tape: neocloud ripped (NBIS +7.44% BNP upgrade + GPU lease price hikes 17-21%, CRWV +3.72%); META +4.50% on Muse adoption + Connect + PT lifts; semis sold off (ARM -7.88%, WDC -4.94% convertible redemption); AKAM +16.66% AH on $11.6B Anthropic cloud deal (gap-chase, watch); SWKS/QRVO $22B merger in final stages (no short). Portfolio +0.23% daily on ARM/SNDK/WDC/AMD/MU strength vs NBIS squeeze drag. Cumulative +11.98%->+12.23%. CLOSED NBIS short (thesis break, -7.44% realized), OPENED META long 2.5% + GOOGL short 3.5% (agent-race pair), TRIMMED VICR 2.5->1.5%. Gross 85.5%->88.0%, Net +2.5%->+3.0%.

📜 Recent Trades (last 15 of 39)

2026-09-25 DAILY REBALANCE N/A @ None [0.0%] — Thu Sep 24 processed. Rotation tape: neocloud ripped (NBIS +7.44% BNP upgrade + GPU lease price hikes 17-21%, CRWV +3.72%); META +4.50% on Muse adoption + Connect + PT lifts (Jefferies $875/KeyBanc $900/Cantor $860); semis sold off (ARM -7.88% profit-taking on +235% YTD, WDC -4.94% convertible redemption); AKAM -6.78% intraday then +16.66% AH on $11.6B Anthropic cloud deal (watch — gap-chase, Software already net long); SWKS -3.98% on KeyBanc downgrade but SWKS/QRVO $22B merger in final stages = deal floor, NOT shortable. Portfolio +0.23% daily: ARM/SNDK/WDC/AMD/MU strength paid vs NBIS squeeze drag, COHR -3.32%/DELL -2.51% giveback. Cumulative +11.98%->+12.23%. Traded: CLOSED NBIS short (thesis break, realized -7.44%), OPENED META long 2.5% + GOOGL short 3.5% (agent-race pair), TRIMMED VICR 2.5->1.5% (risk lock). Gross 85.5%->88.0%, Net +2.5%->+3.0%. Next: MU Sep 30 (CONFIRMED), VICR/TXN Oct 20, LRCX Oct 21, NXPI Oct 27, MSFT/GOOGL/META Oct 28, AMZN/STM/WDC Oct 29, AMD/ANET/SMCI/SWKS Nov 3, QCOM/ARM/COHR Nov 4, NVDA Nov 18 (CONFIRMED).
2026-09-25 CLOSED SHORT NBIS @ 243.48 [2.5%] — THESIS BREAK — closed at $243.48, realized -7.44% (entry $226.61). BNP Paribas upgrade + GPU lease price hikes (17-21%) = neocloud AI-infra pricing power, directly contradicting the 'neocloud unwind' thesis. +7.44% squeeze Sep 24. Exit ahead of -10% stop band on fundamental break, not tape. Redeployed to META/GOOGL agent-race pair.
2026-09-25 OPENED LONG META @ 777.59 [2.5%] — NEW — Muse AI agent adoption curve ahead of ChatGPT's early curve (Sensor Tower ~2.8M downloads in first 12 days vs ~1.8M). Meta Connect 2026: Model API GA, open-weights models, WebMCP agentic-commerce preview. Analyst PT lifts: Jefferies $875, KeyBanc $900, Cantor $860. +4.50% Sep 24 to $777.59. Q3 print Oct 28. Sized 2.5% (post-move entry). Pairs vs GOOGL short.
2026-09-25 OPENED SHORT GOOGL @ 342.36 [3.5%] — NEW — agent-race relative value vs META long: Muse downloads ahead of ChatGPT's early curve = consumer AI-agent mindshare shifting to META vs Gemini. AI capex worries drove -3.80% Sep 23 breakdown. Short on +1.34% Sep 24 bounce at $342.36. Oct 28 earnings (same print as META). Big Tech balance: MSFT/META longs vs AMZN/GOOGL shorts.
2026-09-25 TRIMMED LONG VICR @ 276.06 [1.0%] — Trim 2.5%->1.5% — risk lock after parabolic +21.5% weekly run (+19.9% Tue on AI OEM licensing); first fade day -2.51% Sep 24. ChiP/AI-power thesis intact (PT $386) but tape extended; trim into strength before Oct 20 earnings.
2026-09-24 DAILY REBALANCE N/A @ None [0.0%] — Wed Sep 23 processed. Rotation tape: cybersecurity ripped (PANW +5.0%, CRWD +4.97%, CHKP +2.94%) on AI-safety debate; VICR +5.52% AI-power follow-through; large-cap tech slid (GOOGL -3.80%, AMZN -2.24%) on AI capex worries + Trump-Xi summit; neocloud sold off (SPCX -4.11%, NBIS -4.03%); optics cooled (AAOI -5.55% on $600M ATM). Portfolio -0.03% daily on TSM/MU/COHR giveback, shorts paid on AMZN/SNDK/GFS. Cumulative +12.01%->+11.98%. MAJOR REBALANCE per sub-80% gross mandate: gross 27%->85.5%, Net +4%->+2.5%. Closed ALAB (7th squeeze, cum -7.87%). Scaled 14 existing names. Opened 8 fresh catalyst pairs: ADI/VICR longs + STM/NXPI/ON shorts (Analog), PANW/CRWD longs + CRM short (Software), UMC short (Foundry), SMCI short (Hardware/OEM), AAOI/CRDO shorts (Networking/AI), WDC short (Memory), NBIS short (Neocloud). Next: MU earnings Sep 30, TSM Oct 15, NXPI Oct 26, MSFT Oct 28, AMZN Oct 29, QCOM Nov 4, ANET/AMD Nov 3, NVDA Nov 17. Quarter-end position-squaring window opens next week.
2026-09-24 CLOSED SHORT ALAB @ 360.46 [0.5%] — Closed at $360.46, realized cum -7.87%. 7th rotation squeeze (entry $334.17). Custom-ASIC thesis intact but tape kept squeezing the name; -10% stop band approaching. Redeployed proceeds to CRDO short (same thesis, fresher setup).
2026-09-24 SCALED LONG NVDA @ 225.51 [1.0%] — Scale 2.5->4.0% — Blackwell Ultra ramp into Nov 17 earnings; AI-infra rotation cooled -1.47% today into entry.
2026-09-24 SCALED LONG DELL @ 549.83 [3.0%] — Scale 1.0->4.0% — record $60.9B AI-server orders + $95B backlog; held gains after Sep 22 profit-taking.
2026-09-24 SCALED LONG ANET @ 203.47 [3.0%] — Scale 1.0->4.0% — 800G/1.6T switch cycle intact; Nov 3 earnings; -0.84% dip into entry.
2026-09-24 SCALED LONG MSFT @ 500.59 [1.5%] — Scale 2.0->3.5% — Cantor PT $608 Overweight on Azure/AI; Oct 28 earnings.
2026-09-24 SCALED LONG AMD @ 614.61 [3.0%] — Scale 1.0->4.0% — MI400 series ramp + server share gains; Nov 3 earnings.
2026-09-24 SCALED LONG MU @ 1071.88 [1.5%] — Scale 2.0->3.5% — Sep 30 earnings + HBM pricing bellwether; -2.22% dip into entry.
2026-09-24 SCALED LONG COHR @ 300.6 [2.0%] — Scale 2.0->4.0% — PhotonLink + CPO/NPO LTAs intact; -3.15% optics cooling = conviction add.
2026-09-24 SCALED SHORT STM @ 52.46 [1.5%] — Scale 1.0->2.5% — European auto/SiC weakness intact; core Analog short vs ADI/VICR longs.

Positions by Sub-Sector

AI / Accelerators

Ticker	L/S	Beta	Avg Entry	Latest	Gross	Net	P&L%	Contrib	Next Catalyst
NVDA	Long	1.89	$216.25	$224.58	4.0%	+4.0%	+3.85%	+0.15%	✅ 17 Nov (52d)
CRDO	Short	--	$193.87	$195.97	1.5%	-1.5%	-1.08%	-0.02%	✅ 1 Sep (-25d)
Total					5.5%	+2.5%		+0.14%

Analog / Power / Industrial

Ticker	L/S	Beta	Avg Entry	Latest	Gross	Net	P&L%	Contrib	Next Catalyst
ADI	Long	--	$385.23	$382.61	4.0%	+4.0%	-0.68%	-0.03%	~ 24 Nov (59d)
VICR	Long	--	$283.16	$276.06	1.5%	+1.5%	-2.51%	-0.04%	✅ 20 Oct (24d)
NXPI	Short	1.78	$277.29	$230.16	3.5%	-3.5%	+17.00%	+0.59%	✅ 27 Oct (31d)
ON	Short	2.58	$93.39	$73.15	0.5%	-0.5%	+21.67%	+0.11%
STM	Short	2.69	$66.31	$51.58	2.5%	-2.5%	+22.21%	+0.56%	✅ 29 Oct (33d)
Total					12.0%	-1.0%		+1.19%

Big Tech / Platforms

Ticker	L/S	Beta	Avg Entry	Latest	Gross	Net	P&L%	Contrib	Next Catalyst
META	Long	--	$777.59	$777.59	2.5%	+2.5%	+0.00%	+0.00%	✅ 28 Oct (32d)
MSFT	Long	0.94	$494.30	$497.93	3.5%	+3.5%	+0.74%	+0.03%	✅ 28 Oct (32d)
AMZN	Short	1.45	$267.28	$249.38	3.5%	-3.5%	+6.70%	+0.23%	✅ 29 Oct (33d)
GOOGL	Short	1.38	$342.36	$342.36	3.5%	-3.5%	+0.00%	+0.00%	✅ 29 Oct (33d)
Total					13.0%	-1.0%		+0.26%

CPU

Ticker	L/S	Beta	Avg Entry	Latest	Gross	Net	P&L%	Contrib	Next Catalyst
AMD	Long	3.18	$578.32	$629.26	4.0%	+4.0%	+8.81%	+0.35%	✅ 3 Nov (38d)
ARM	Short	--	$322.90	$306.34	3.5%	-3.5%	+5.13%	+0.18%	~ 4 Nov (39d)
Total					7.5%	+0.5%		+0.53%

Foundry

Ticker	L/S	Beta	Avg Entry	Latest	Gross	Net	P&L%	Contrib	Next Catalyst
TSM	Long	2.19	$423.27	$451.15	4.0%	+4.0%	+6.59%	+0.26%	~ 15 Oct (19d)
GFS	Short	2.20	$59.19	$47.05	2.5%	-2.5%	+20.51%	+0.51%
UMC	Short	1.80	$24.68	$24.10	2.5%	-2.5%	+2.35%	+0.06%	~ 8 Sep (-18d)
Total					9.0%	-1.0%		+0.84%

Hardware / OEM

Ticker	L/S	Beta	Avg Entry	Latest	Gross	Net	P&L%	Contrib	Next Catalyst
DELL	Long	2.14	$523.12	$536.02	4.0%	+4.0%	+2.47%	+0.10%	✅ 1 Sep (-25d)
SMCI	Short	--	$41.44	$41.51	4.0%	-4.0%	-0.17%	-0.01%	~ 3 Nov (38d)
Total					8.0%	+0.0%		+0.09%

Memory

Ticker	L/S	Beta	Avg Entry	Latest	Gross	Net	P&L%	Contrib	Next Catalyst
MU	Long	--	$1,055.93	$1,080.53	3.5%	+3.5%	+2.33%	+0.08%	✅ 30 Sep (4d)
SNDK	Short	--	$1,887.04	$1,753.62	3.5%	-3.5%	+7.07%	+0.25%	~ 5 Nov (40d)
WDC	Short	--	$473.69	$450.31	2.5%	-2.5%	+4.94%	+0.12%	✅ 29 Oct (33d)
Total					9.5%	-2.5%		+0.45%

Networking / Optical

Ticker	L/S	Beta	Avg Entry	Latest	Gross	Net	P&L%	Contrib	Next Catalyst
ANET	Long	2.06	$196.56	$205.70	4.0%	+4.0%	+4.65%	+0.19%	✅ 3 Nov (38d)
COHR	Long	--	$305.50	$290.61	4.0%	+4.0%	-4.87%	-0.19%
AAOI	Short	--	$101.06	$101.03	2.5%	-2.5%	+0.03%	+0.00%
CSCO	Short	--	$106.44	$106.97	2.5%	-2.5%	-0.50%	-0.01%	~ 11 Nov (46d)
Total					13.0%	+3.0%		-0.02%

Software

Ticker	L/S	Beta	Avg Entry	Latest	Gross	Net	P&L%	Contrib	Next Catalyst
CRWD	Long	--	$262.49	$259.67	3.0%	+3.0%	-1.07%	-0.03%
PANW	Long	--	$393.30	$389.92	3.5%	+3.5%	-0.86%	-0.03%	✅ 1 Sep (-25d)
CRM	Short	--	$237.58	$238.22	4.0%	-4.0%	-0.27%	-0.01%
Total					10.5%	+2.5%		-0.07%

Portfolio Total

Metric	Value
Gross exposure	88.0%
Net exposure	+3.0%
Net beta	+0.15
Volatility (annualized)	0.0%
Cumulative P&L	+12.23%

Monthly P&L

Month	Contribution
July	+0.00%
August	+0.00%
September	+12.23%

Trade Thesis

NVDA (L): SEP 24: -0.41% to $224.58 (cum +5.36%); quiet tape. Blackwell Ultra ramp into Nov 18 earnings (CONFIRMED). Hold 4.0% max. | *AI price hikes on 2027 Vera Rubin/Grace Blackwell; Blackwell Ultra ramp*
TSM (L): SEP 24: +1.03% to $451.15 (cum +6.59%); foundry bid resilient amid semis selloff. Oct 15 earnings. Hold 4.0% max. | *3nm/2nm ramp; CoWoS expansion; AI chip demand*
DELL (L): SEP 24: -2.51% to $536.02 (cum +21.00%); profit-taking, $95B AI-server backlog thesis intact. Nov 24 earnings. Hold 4.0%. | *AI server backlog $95B; record $60.9B orders; enterprise refresh*
ANET (L): SEP 24: +1.10% to $205.70 (cum +16.99%); 800G/1.6T switch cycle intact. Nov 3 earnings. Hold 4.0%. | *AI back-end networking; 800G/1.6T switch cycle*
MSFT (L): SEP 24: -0.53% to $497.93 (cum +3.49%); Azure/AI + Cantor PT $608 intact. Oct 28 earnings. Hold 3.5%. | *Azure/AI cloud demand; Copilot monetization; Cantor PT $608*
AMD (L): SEP 24: +2.38% to $629.26 (cum +34.04%); MI400 ramp momentum strongest CPU long. Nov 3 earnings. Hold 4.0%. | *MI400 series ramp; server share gains vs Intel*
MU (L): SEP 24: +0.81% to $1,080.53 (cum +3.50%); firming into Sep 30 earnings (Q4 FY26 CONFIRMED). HBM pricing bellwether. Hold 3.5%. | *Sep 30 earnings; AI HBM demand; memory pricing*
COHR (L): SEP 24: -3.32% to $290.61 (cum -6.37%); optics cooling continues but PhotonLink + CPO/NPO LTAs intact. Nov 4 earnings. Hold 4.0% (watch -10% band). | *PhotonLink platform; CPO/NPO production ramp; AI optics demand*
ADI (L): SEP 24: -0.68% to $382.61 (cum -0.68%); modest giveback. Above-seasonal Q1 + 10/11 qtrs bookings growth intact. Nov 24 earnings. Hold 4.0%. | *Above-seasonal Q1 guide; 10/11 qtrs bookings growth; DD growth 2027; broad-market recovery*
PANW (L): SEP 24: -0.86% to $389.92 (cum -0.86%); pause after cyber bid. AI-safety security-spend narrative intact. Hold 3.5%. | *AI-safety debate driving security spend; platform consolidation; analyst AI-targets*
VICR (L): SEP 24: -2.51% to $276.06 (cum -2.51%); first fade after parabolic +21.5% week. TRIMMED 2.5->1.5% to lock risk. ChiP/AI-power thesis intact (PT $386). Oct 20 earnings. | *AI OEM licensing; ChiP module ramp; analyst avg PT $386*
CRWD (L): SEP 24: -1.07% to $259.67 (cum -1.07%); mild pullback, AI-security narrative intact. Dec 1 earnings. Hold 3.0%. | *AI-driven cyberthreat narrative; Wall Street AI-security PTs; platform consolidation*
ON (S): SEP 24: -1.28% to $73.15 (cum +21.67%); auto/industrial collapse thesis intact. Nov 2 earnings. Hold 0.5% (small). | *Auto end-market correction; excess channel inventory*
STM (S): SEP 24: -1.68% to $51.58 (cum +22.21%); European auto/SiC weakness intact. Oct 29 earnings. Hold 2.5%. | *European auto production cuts; SiC headwinds*
NXPI (S): SEP 24: -2.24% to $230.16 (cum +17.00%); auto/China EV weakness intact. Oct 27 earnings. Hold 3.5%. | *Automotive semi demand weakness; China EV slowdown*
AMZN (S): SEP 24: +0.04% flat $249.38 (cum +6.70%); Muse-blocking standoff = defensive vs agentic commerce. Oct 29 earnings. Hold 3.5%. | *AWS growth deceleration; retail margin compression; regulatory overhang*
GFS (S): SEP 24: +1.36% to $47.05 (cum +20.51%); small bounce, no-AI/low-utilization thesis intact. Hold 2.5%. | *Wafer pricing pressure; low utilization; no AI exposure*
ARM (S): SEP 24: -7.88% to $306.34 (cum +5.13%); semis selloff + profit-taking on +235% YTD run — mean-reversion working. OCP Summit Oct 12-15 event risk. Hold 3.5%. | *CPU rotation extension; valuation mean reversion*
SNDK (S): SEP 24: -3.47% to $1,753.62 (cum +7.07%); Barron's cover fade working, NAND peak mean-reversion. Hold 3.5%. | *Barron's cover hype; NAND supercycle peak; mean reversion*
CSCO (S): SEP 24: +0.51% to $106.97 (cum -0.50%); flat tape, insider-selling/legacy thesis intact. Nov 11 earnings. Hold 2.5%. | *Insider selling; bearish technicals; legacy networking headwinds*
CRM (S): SEP 24: +0.27% to $238.22 (cum -0.27%); agentic-AI-vs-seat-SaaS thesis intact. Dec 2 earnings. Hold 4.0%. | *Agentic AI disruption to seat-based SaaS; application-layer commoditization*
UMC (S): SEP 24: -2.35% to $24.10 (cum +2.35%); mature-node weakness intact, no AI exposure. Hold 2.5%. | *Mature-node weakness; no AI exposure; semi selloff*
SMCI (S): SEP 24: +0.17% flat $41.51 (cum -0.17%); flat tape, AI-server share-loss-to-DELL thesis intact. Nov 3 earnings. Hold 4.0%. | *AI-server share loss to DELL; margin compression; competitive normalization*
AAOI (S): SEP 24: -0.03% flat $101.03 (cum +0.03%); $600M ATM dilution overhang intact. Nov 5 earnings. Hold 2.5%. | *$600M ATM dilution; optics trade cooling; AI-hardware rotation out*
CRDO (S): SEP 24: +1.08% to $195.97 (cum -1.08%); slight squeeze, custom-ASIC/PCIe commoditization thesis intact. ~Nov 30/Dec 1 earnings. Hold 1.5% (small). | *Custom ASIC competition; PCIe/AEC commoditization*
WDC (S): SEP 24: -4.94% to $450.31 (cum +4.94%); convertible-note redemption + memory weakness. Oct 29 earnings. Hold 2.5%. | *Memory/storage profit-taking; positioning unwind; June peak mean-reversion*
META (L): NEW — Muse AI agent adoption ahead of ChatGPT early curve (~2.8M downloads/12d); Model API GA + WebMCP. PT lifts Jefferies $875/KeyBanc $900/Cantor $860. Oct 28 earnings. Long 2.5% at $777.59. | *Muse AI adoption curve ahead of ChatGPT; Model API GA; analyst PT lifts; Q3 Oct 28*
GOOGL (S): NEW — agent-race short vs META long: Muse out-adopting Gemini consumer position; AI capex worries (-3.80% Sep 23 breakdown). Oct 28 earnings. Short 3.5% at $342.36. | *Agent-race share loss vs Muse; AI capex worries; Q3 Oct 28*

📋 Portfolio Rules

Gross exposure target	80–120% (rebuild toward the floor when drifting below)
Net exposure	~0% (market-neutral intent)
Single position max	≤ 4% of book
Sub-sector neutral	Longs ≈ shorts within each category (pair trades)
Cut loser	Hard stop at −10% cumulative on any position
Take profit / trim	Clip winners approaching the stop band; bank ≥ +15–20% on extended squeezes
Initiation	New position requires a catalyst-backed thesis (conference, earnings, or price anomaly)
Replacement mandate	Every closure triggers evaluation of 1–2 new catalyst-backed pairs — gross must not erode
Rebalance	Daily at 8am SG after market close